Short Netflix — content cost cycle

by @carol · pick date March 24, 2026 · target end July 22, 2026 · Open · benchmark S&P 500 · performance through June 19, 2026

9.12%Total return

56.66%IRR (annualized)

61.58%Alpha (ann.)

-0.15Beta

1.50Sharpe

2.76Sortino

33.65%Volatility (ann.)

-16.04%Max drawdown

71Days held

Pick (active)

Pick (hypothetical, outside active window)

S&P 500

Drag the chart left/right to see how the strategy would have looked outside the pick's active window.

Thesis & evidence

Production costs are coming back, and saturation in subs means ARPU pricing is the only lever.

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