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Microsoft: cloud + buybacks

by @bob · pick date July 17, 2025 · target end April 3, 2026 · Closed (end date reached) · benchmark S&P 500 · performance through April 3, 2026
Long 1.00 × MSFT (US)
-26.59%Total return
-35.32%IRR (annualized)
-46.74%Alpha (ann.)
0.89Beta
-1.67Sharpe
-1.93Sortino
24.24%Volatility (ann.)
-33.91%Max drawdown
259Days held
Pick (active)
Pick (hypothetical, outside active window)
S&P 500
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Thesis & evidence

Thesis

Azure growth is durable, AI accelerates monetization, and buybacks add ~2% per year. Compounder at a fair price.

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