Microsoft: cloud + buybacks

by @bob · pick date July 17, 2025 · target end April 3, 2026 · Closed (end date reached) · benchmark S&P 500 · performance through April 3, 2026

-26.59%Total return

-35.32%IRR (annualized)

-46.74%Alpha (ann.)

0.89Beta

-1.67Sharpe

-1.93Sortino

24.24%Volatility (ann.)

-33.91%Max drawdown

259Days held

Pick (active)

Pick (hypothetical, outside active window)

S&P 500

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Thesis & evidence

Azure growth is durable, AI accelerates monetization, and buybacks add ~2% per year. Compounder at a fair price.

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